Lt. Gen. James M. Holmes, Deputy Chief of Staff for Strategic Plans and
Requirements, and other senior USAF officials have advocated for a systems of
systems (SoS) solution to U.S. air superiority which would grant greater
modularity, lower cost, and acquisition speed when compared to a traditional
follow-on platform approach. Ultimately a SoS approach to air superiority has
the potential to deliver on many of the aforementioned benefits above, but a
manned sixth generation follow-on platform is still required to ensure a robust
air superiority capability following a lengthier acquisition cycle. The debate within the USAF for an SoS approach to air superiority has been influenced by broader DoD discussions of the third offset strategy and human-machine combat teaming.
Human-machine
combat teaming is an integral aspect of the third offset strategy which
includes not only greater use and development of autonomous and semi-autonomous
systems but also the organization of data and battlefield networks to
facilitate greater situational awareness and human decision making.[1] Deputy Defense Secretary
Robert Work cites the Army’s MUM-T system, in which an AH-64E attack helicopter
can control an MQ-1C Grey Eagle, as an example of a highly capable
human-machine combat system predating the third offset strategy. The MQ-1C’s
remotely piloted vehicle (RPA) sensors enable the AH-64E to fire its hellfire
missiles at longer ranges than otherwise possible using only the AH-64E’s
sensors.[2] The Avatar/ Skyborg program by
the Strategic Capabilities Office (SCO) is frequently touted as a
representative example of expected future human-machine combat teaming, the
Avatar program is often referred to as the “loyal wingman” concept by the
USAF. The Avatar program seeks to modify
older fourth generation aircraft into unmanned systems, such as the QF-16
target drone, and pair them with manned 5th generation assets. The
unmanned systems would act as a force multiplier for manned assets by carrying
additional weapons which would be directed by the sensors of other assets in a
battlefield network.
Colonel Michael W.
Pietrucha’s concept for a semi-autonomous force multiplier unmanned combat
aerial vehicle (UCAV) outlined in, The
Next Lightweight Fighter, provides a useful intellectual framework from
which to conceptualize the role and requirements of the loyal wingman concept,
The UCAV will not replace the manned fighter aircraft
– we cannot build a control system to replicate the sensing and processing
ability of trained aircrews. Nevertheless, UCAVs may play a valuable role as a
supplementary system. Not remotely piloted aircraft [RPA], they will operate
semiautonomously, serving as literal wingmen of limited capabilities. We can
build the technology to fly an aircraft and execute the preprogramed routines.
The ‘brains’ of the operation will remain the nearby human, who needs only to
tell the UCAV what to do and (mostly) forget about it.[3]
The UCAV would not be a dogfighter in the
traditional sense. Rather, the UCAV would act as a “missile truck” for 5th
generation assets given the limited internal carriage of weapons in the F-22
and F-35. Therefore, the design can sacrifice many of the design attributes
associated with high-end maneuverability in favor of payload, endurance, and
range. Pietrucha outlines three modes from which his proposed F-40 Warhawk UCAV
could operate: autonomous, semi-autonomous, and cooperative. However,
Pietrucha’s vision of autonomous capabilities are relatively modest such as
basic aviation capabilities related to navigation of predesignated locations
and weapons employment against fixed targets. In the Air Force publication, Autonomous Horizons, the USAF Office of
the Chief Scientist mirrors many of Pietrucha’s technical feasibility
reservations regarding fully autonomous combat aircraft.[4]
Image 5: BVR detection and engagement ranges between the F-35 armed with an AIM-120D vs. a Su-30MK with a R-77M-PD. The length between points is to scale with real world figures, the width is not. Its also important to note the maximum kinematic range of each missile is never the actual effective range of the missile which is contingent upon its launch point with corresponding airspeed and altitude of launch platform as well as its position or aspect relative to the maneuvering target among other factors. Even with all these factors in consideration, the U.S. still maintains a substantial advantage in BVR as a result of low observability and more powerful AESA radars. Image Credit: Matt
While
a fully autonomous within visual range (WVR) capable UCAV could conceivably
outmaneuver and outperform human pilots by virtue of lacking biological
limitations, the technological, legal, and financial barriers are too
significant to realistically field the system within the next decade.
Furthermore, even if all the aforementioned challenges to autonomy were solved,
the USAF would likely fiercely oppose any unmanned fighter on the basis of
institutional-cultural grounds as demonstrated by the resistance to adopting
the much more modest proposal of arming the MQ-1.[5] As an institution, the
USAF has placed enormous faith in the longevity of the U.S.’ comparative
advantages in stealth and avionics which enable “first shot first kill”
capability. Unmanned systems have the capacity to solidify the U.S.’
comparative advantage in BVR engagements but will be unable to fulfill the WVR
classic dogfighting requirement that traditional follow-on platforms provide. A manned sixth generation fighter is still necessary. U.S. strategic competitors
have made significant progress in eroding the U.S.’ BVR advantage by fielding
in theater numerically superior forces with both high missile loads and
effective jamming to reduce the pk of U.S. radar guided missiles. A manned
sixth generation platform provides a hedge against technological uncertainty by
providing historically relevant capabilities in the context of the
measure-countermeasure competition between the U.S. and potential adversaries
in BVR technologies. While the USAF’s goal is to produce a sixth generation
platform with an IOC by 2030, given numerous historical examples such as the
F-35 program, an IOC by 2030 is likely optimistic. A low cost SoS solution
incorporating a loyal wingman UCAV to smooth the transition between fifth and
sixth generation platforms would be invaluable for the USAF.
Image 6: The loyal wingman concept is in many ways reminiscent of Lockheed Martin's modular optionally manned Saber Warrior concept. Image Credit: Lockheed Martin.
Image 6: The loyal wingman concept is in many ways reminiscent of Lockheed Martin's modular optionally manned Saber Warrior concept. Image Credit: Lockheed Martin.
The loyal wingman
concept and other forms of human-machine combat systems naturally fit within a
broader SoS architecture in terms of concepts of operation. SoS refers to a
organizational structure in which multiple specialized independent systems are
utilized in conjunction with one another to generate synergistic effects which
are greater than the sum of independently operating those systems. SoS
solutions are contrasted by platform centric solutions which seek to field
highly capable multi-function platforms capable of undertaking a wide spectrum
of missions.[6]
Advocates of the SoS approach argue the more specialized and limited
requirements for each individual component within the SoS decreases cost and
technical challenges. Additionally, the low cost and technical risk of each
component enables rapid replacement and greater agility when upgrading the SoS.
In an environment of approximate technological parity, the ability to quickly
upgrade and reconfigure systems in order to counter adversary developments is
invaluable. Rather than defeating an adversary outright as a result of superior
technology, the pronounced aversion to high technical risk platforms has guided
the service to place a greater emphasis on concepts of operation and the
integration of several different mature but promising technologies, as SoS can,
to deter and defeat near-peer competitors.
At a CNAS event in
2015, Deputy Secretary Robert Work remarked on the current strategic
environment with respect to integrating existing technologies into operational
concepts: “…this is much more like the inter-war period, where everything was
available and all you had to do -- it was the competitors who put the components
together into operational and organizational constructs that gave them the
advantage.”[7]
The inter-war period and early Cold War demonstrate the feasibility of SoS with
respect to two foundational concepts of peacetime innovation: (1) superior concepts
of operation can result in decisive battlefield results over a technically and
numerically matched adversary and (2) effective management of technological
uncertainty is achievable through extensive prototyping and diversifying
investment in several technologies. For example, the Wehrmacht’s success in the
battle of France was determined not by technological superiority but by its
organizational structure and superior understanding of armored warfare
developed in the interwar period. In May 1940, French and British tank forces
not only had numerical superiority over the Germans, but also allied tanks
often had superior firepower and protection relative to German tanks.[8] The U.S. development of
guided missiles between 1945 and 1955 serves as a model in which technological
uncertainty was mitigated through extensive prototyping of multiple systems,
but procurement was deferred until other uncertainties – such as political
considerations, were resolved. The diversification and risk mitigation of
several technologies has a high degree of applicability to a SoS approach to
air superiority. [9]
With the aforementioned principles to peacetime innovation in mind, the
following recommendations would enable the USAF to field a SoS approach to air
superiority which would significantly augment existing platforms within a
relatively short period between 2025 and 2030.
The focus of this
SoS approach to air superiority is to seek promising existing technologies and
integrate them in such a way that the U.S. can quickly produce new capabilities
at a relatively low cost. All the systems discussed are either operational, in
the midst of the procurement process, or incorporate mature technologies but no
procurement decision has been approved. The approach seeks to solve as many of
the six aforementioned challenges to air superiority the U.S. will face in the
Asia-Pacific between 2025 and 2030. The following are the major components in
the proposed SoS solution to air superiority: the miniature air launched decoy
(MALD), SACM, loyal wingman, and 5th generation fighter platform. As
MALD, 5th generation platforms, and SACM have all been approved from
a development perspective, this paper will focus on the development and
integration of a loyal wingman aircraft to the other SoS components. An
analysis of the role of the loyal wingman and its associated benefits and
limitations will be followed by an analysis of recommendations regarding how to
transition the SoS concept into an operational reality.
Image 7: SoS components. The design characteristic of SACM, that it can fit on a SDB rack, is inferred from Lockheed Martin's CUDA concept which competed and ultimately lost against Raytheon's SACM concept which has not been revealed at this time. Image Credit: Matt
The
rapid pace at which the loyal wingman would need to be developed necessitates
fairly conservative requirements to boost acquisition agility. The core
requirements of any force multiplier type UCAV are: semi-autonomous control via
F-35 and F-22, air-to-air missile storage capacity, reduced radar cross
section, extended range and endurance, and low cost and technical risk. The use
of a secure resilient data link would enable 5th generation
platforms to act as forward command and control (C2) assets by directing larger
formations of force multiplier type loyal wingman UCAVs. The superior avionics
and integration of data via fused sensor inputs of 5th generation
fighters naturally facilitates this C2 role. Over the skies of Syria, F-22
pilots regularly guide and direct other assets given their superior situational
awareness of the battlefield.[10] This SoS approach would
expand upon those C2 capabilities by granting the F-22 and F-35 pilots control
over UCAVs. The following is a hypothetical scenario which demonstrates the
utility of a SoS solution to air superiority featuring MALD, SACM, the loyal
wingman, and 5th generation platforms:
- 24 MALDs fly towards an adversary IADS and utilize their onboard signature augmentation subsystems to mimic a formation of F-15s
- An adversary formation of 20 Su-30s detects the decoys via radar and fires a salvo of R-77 BVR radar guided missiles
- A formation of 4 F-35s operating in a low electronic signature state detect the radar emissions of the Su-30s utilizing their geolocation apertures and determine their position via time difference of arrival (TDOA)
- The lead pilot in the F-35 formation commands 8 nearby low observable UCAVs to fire their payload of 48 SACMs in lock-on after launch (LOAL) mode
- The lead F-35 pilot guides the SACMs to the approximate location of the Su-30s via a two-way data link with each missile
- The terminal seekers of the SACMs activate when in close proximity to the Su-30 formation, the use of LOAL and a two-way data link gives the Su-30s the minimum possible time to detect the missiles and employ countermeasures thereby maximizing the missile’s pk
Author's Note: Part III: Loyal Wingman Options and Procurement Strategy
[1] Sydney J. Freedberg, Jr., “People,
Not Tech: DepSecDef Work On 3rd Offset, JICSPOC”, February 2016. http://breakingdefense.com/2016/02/its-not-about-technology-bob-work-on-the-3rd-offset-strategy/
[2] Richard Whittle, “MUM-T Is the
Word for AH-64E: Helos Fly, Use Drones “, January 2015. http://breakingdefense.com/2015/01/mum-t-is-the-word-for-ah-64e-helos-fly-use-drones/
[3] Col Michael W. Pietrucha,
"The Next Lightweight Fighter", Air
& Space Power Journal, August-July 2013.
[4] United States Air Force Office of
the Chief Scientist, "Autonomous Horizons", June 2015. http://www.af.mil/Portals/1/documents/SECAF/AutonomousHorizons.pdf?timestamp=1435068339702
[5] Richard Whittle, Predator, (Henry Hold and Company,
2014).
[6] John Shaw, “System of Systems
Integration Technology and Experimentation (SoSITE)”. http://www.darpa.mil/program/system-of-systems-integration-technology-and-experimentation
[7] Robert Work, “Deputy Secretary of
Defense Speech”, December 2014. http://www.defense.gov/News/Speeches/Speech-View/Article/634214/cnas-defense-forum
[8] Steven J.Zaloga, PANZER IV VS CHAR B1 BIS France 1940,
Osprey Publishing, 2011.
[9] Stephen Peter Rosen, Winning the Next War, (Cornell
University Press, 1991).
[10] Lolita C. Baldor, “F-22 Raptor
Ensures other War-Fighting Aircraft Survive Over Syria”, July 2015. http://www.military.com/daily-news/2015/07/21/f22-raptor-ensures-other-war-fighting-aircraft-survive-syria.html